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domingo, 10 de agosto de 2008

Georgia move fails to halt raids


Georgian soldier looks from a vehicle while heading to the town of Gori, Georgia
Georgia insists that all its forces are now outside South Ossetia

Russia has continued air raids deep inside Georgia, after it rejected Tbilisi's announcement that it had called a ceasefire and wanted talks.

Jets bombed targets near Tbilisi, including the airport, and Russia said its warships had sunk a Georgian boat that approached and tried to attack.

Russia earlier took control of the breakaway region of South Ossetia, forcing Georgian troops to withdraw.

Meanwhile, the US administration has expressed strong support for Georgia.

President George W Bush said that he told Russia's Prime Minister Vladimir Putin: "This violence is unacceptable."

At a meeting on the sidelines of the Olympic in Beijing on Friday, the US president said that all troops should return to their positions prior to the latest unrest, which began on 6 August.

"I was very firm with Vladimir Putin," Mr Bush said.

Meanwhile, Vice President Dick Cheney told Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili in a telephone conversation that "Russian aggression must not go unanswered".

He said the events in Georgia would have "serious consequences" on Russia's relations with the United States.

Earlier, the US ambassador at the UN accused Russia of seeking "regime change" in Georgia.

Peace mission

President Saakashvili told the BBC his forces had observed a ceasefire since 0500 on Sunday morning, but had still been bombed by Russian planes. He said his government had been trying "all day" to contact Russia to discuss a ceasefire.

Russian jets were still carrying out bombing raids late on Sunday. Witnesses said jets had hit Tbilisi International Airport, as well as a military airfield close to the Georgian capital.

The airport was hit only a few hours before French Foreign Minister Bernard Kouchner and Finnish Foreign Minister Alexander Stubb arrived on a peace mission.


A Georgian official said earlier that Russian planes had bombed the western town of Zugdidi and Georgian-controlled territory inside Abkhazia. The claims could not be independently verified.

Later Russia's navy said it had sunk what it called a Georgian missile boat that had approached at high speed and tried to attack Russian warships in the Black Sea.

The conflict has caused civilian casualties and more are at risk
Antonio Guterres
UN High Commissioner for Refugees


Meanwhile, there the US clashed with Russia at the United Nations Security Council, accusing it of seeking "regime change" in Georgia.

The US ambassador to the UN, Zalmay Khalilzad, quoted Russia's foreign minister saying Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili "must go".

He asked his Russian counterpart, Vitaly Churkin: "Is the goal of the Russian Federation to change the leadership of Georgia?"

Mr Churkin did not directly answer the question, but said there were leaders who had "become an obstacle".

The council has met for four days running, but has failed to agree on the wording of a statement calling for a ceasefire.

But the US said it was preparing a draft resolution condemning Russia. Analysts said although Russia would veto such a statement, the US wanted to build backing for the motion to demonstrate international opinion.

Clashes in South Ossetia itself were reported to be less intense on Sunday, as Russian forces took control and Georgian troops drew back.

Mikhail Saakashvili claims Russia has not respected the ceasefire

Local residents fleeing the area on Sunday morning told the BBC that Tskhinvali was relatively quiet.

Later, however, the BBC's Richard Galpin described a sense of panic on Sunday night in the Georgian town of Gori, near South Ossetia, amid fears that Russian troops were about to march on the town.

He had been warned by the interior ministry to leave Gori, only to find that the road to Tbilisi was crammed with cars full of fleeing civilians.

'Disproportionate force'

Georgia's announcement of its ceasefire came in a statement from the foreign ministry, stating that Georgia "today stopped firing in the South Ossetian conflict zone and is ready to begin talks with Russia on a ceasefire and cessation of hostilities".

It said a note had been passed to the Russian embassy in Georgia to that effect.

ARMED FORCES COMPARED
GEORGIA
Total personnel: 26,900
Main battle tanks (T-72): 82
Armoured personnel carriers: 139
Combat aircraft (Su-25): Seven
Heavy artillery pieces (including Grad rocket launchers): 95
RUSSIA
Total personnel: 641,000
Main battle tanks (various): 6,717
Armoured personnel carriers: 6,388
Combat aircraft (various): 1,206
Heavy artillery pieces (various): 7,550
Source: Jane's Sentinel Country Risk Assessments

But a Russian foreign ministry official was quoted by Interfax saying "our information does not confirm the Georgian statement".

"There are indications that exchanges of fire are continuing and the Georgian forces have not been fully withdrawn from the conflict zone," he said.

The United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR) called on the parties to the conflict to grant safe passage for thousands of civilians trying to escape the war zone.

The UNHCR estimates that between 10,000 and 20,000 people have been displaced within Georgia, including South Ossetia, while Russia has said that a further 30,000 people have fled north into the Russian province of North Ossetia.

"The conflict has caused civilian casualties and more are at risk," UN High Commissioner for Refugees Antonio Guterres said.

"It is essential that humanitarian agencies be able to reach the affected and the displaced."

Meanwhile tensions were rising in Georgia's other breakaway region, Abkhazia.

The leader of the separatist government there, Sergei Bagapsh, said he had ordered a military operation to clear Georgian forces out of Abkhazia's Kodori Gorge, and gave them a deadline to leave.

Georgia has accused Russia of landing 4,000 more troops in Abkhazia via the Black Sea. The separatists said Georgia had deployed a similar number of soldiers south of the Abkhaz border.

BBC map

Challenging situation for Moscow

By James Rodgers
BBC News, Moscow

Putin in North Ossetia (09/08/08)
Russian PM Vladimir Putin seems to be taking the decisions

The aftershocks from the earthquake are still being felt almost two decades later. Not all the dust has settled from collapse of the Soviet Union.

South Ossetia is one of the wars - "frozen conflicts" in diplomatic speech - which did not really end. It smouldered beneath the surface. Now it has reignited.

It presents special problems for the Kremlin. There is a sense here that Russia was taken by surprise.

"I don't think Russia had any plan or master design for this conflict," says Andrei Kortunov, president of the New Eurasia Foundation. "Russia was reacting, and improvising - probably not always successfully.

"The way the Kremlin reacted suggests that they were not prepared to face such an action from the Georgian side," he adds.

The fact that the first statement from a top-level official came not from the Kremlin, but from Beijing, gives a clue as to who is taking the real decisions.

It was the Prime Minister, Vladimir Putin, who spoke. It was also Mr Putin who arrived in the Russian region which borders South Ossetia to denounce "genocide".

Determined line

As Russia formulates its response, he is clearly playing a bigger role than any of his predecessors in the post might have expected.


Given the nature of the size and the terrain of the region where the fighting is going on, Russia would by no means assured of an easy military victory - if that's the way it decided to seek a solution.

That means Russia is likely to continue to follow the determined line it has set out so far.

During his time as president, Mr Putin is thought to have had a particularly poor relationship with his Georgian counterpart, Mikhail Saakashvili.

Mr Saakashvili's close ties with the United States, and ambition for Georgian Nato membership, pretty much sums up everything Mr Putin condemned when he made a speech at the Munich Security Conference last year.

In an interview with the BBC, I put it to Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov that given this antagonistic atmosphere, Russia wanted to teach Georgia a lesson.

Mr Lavrov began his reply by recalling recent diplomatic rows between Russia and Georgia.

He then said: "If you want us to like the people who started this aggression in South Ossetia, killing Russian peacekeepers, I don't think we would be positively considering the offer."

'Double standards'

Russia is clearly angered by the way this conflict has developed, but its way forward is not obvious.

Russian artillery in action in the South Ossetian town of Dzhava on 9 August
Georgia's move into South Ossetia appears to have surprised Russia

Before Kosovo's independence, Moscow insisted that South Ossetia's status should be considered along with that of Kosovo.

Russia bitterly opposed the secession of a region of Serbia. If it now decided to support the secession of a region of another sovereign state, it would leave itself open to the charges of "double standards" it so often lays at the West's door.

Russia also has its own disastrous experience of a separatist war in the Caucasus - in Chechnya.

From that conflict, Russia knows the challenges of facing a smaller, but determined, enemy.

What Russia wants

Russia's military strength dwarfs that of Georgia - but Georgia has spent massively on its army. Some of its officers have travelled to the US for training.

Especially given the nature of the size and the terrain of the region where the fighting is going on, Russia would by no means assured of an easy military victory - if that is the way it decided to seek a solution.

So what does Russia want?

Mr Lavrov said he had had lengthy consultations with US and European officials.

"We explained our position. We cannot allow the peace agreements just to be violated this way. And whatever it takes to bring the situation to status quo ante would be done."

It is easy to see why Russia would want that. The "status quo" meant that Russia had close ties with a region whose de-facto independence was a thorn in the side of a would-be Nato member.

Russia did not need either formally to recognise that independence, or take complete responsibility for South Ossetia's fate.

But the consequences of this conflict may mean that vague, undefined, status for South Ossetia is no longer an option - forcing on Russia a change in a relationship which suited it rather well.

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