Finland-based Horace Dediu, who runs Asymco, which on LinkedIn is self-described as "a company selling software development and consulting services for companies interested in deploying mobile applications," published a blog post today that might make some people's heads explode — particularly those of us without a penchant for numbers. In that post, he charts "The rise and fall of personal computing," which compares PCs to Macs, iOS and Android devices in shipped units and market share.
In his last graph, Dediu talks about the integration of smartphones into the personal computing space.
I will concede that this last view is extremist. It does not reflect a competition that exists in real life. However, I put this data together to show a historic pattern. Sometimes extremism is a better point of view than conservatism. Ignoring this view is very harmful as these not-good-enough computers will surely get better. A competitor that has no strategy to deal with this shift is likely to suffer the fate of those companies in the left side of the chart. Treating the first share chart as reality is surely much more dangerous than contemplating the third.
As he puts it:
The “entrants” into personal computing, the iPad, iPhone and Android, have a combined volume that is higher than the PCs sold in the same period (358 million estimated iOS+Android vs. 336 million PCs excluding Macs in 2011.) The growth rate and the scale itself combine to make the entrants impossible to ignore.