Implications of Rabbani’s murder

THOSE behind assassination of former Afghan President and Chairman of the High Peace Council Prof Burhanuddin Rabbani have killed many birds with one shot and only time will unfold the fuller implications of the conspiracy to remove him from the stage. The tragedy compelled President Hamid Karzai to cut short his US visit and return home to take care of the emerging situation and one hopes the inquiry process would bring to surface the real faces and motives of those who committed this heinous crime.

In the first place, the suicide attack that took place in the highly fortified areas of capital Kabul where both occupation troops and Karzai forces have dominant presence and every conceivable security arrangements is a grim reminder about inability of the United States and its allies to improve security even after ten years down the road. And the situation is unlikely to change now when they have already announced their plans to get rid of the Afghan ‘blanket’ in 2014. It also speaks volumes about strength of resistance forces and their capacity to penetrate any place at any time of their choice, a reality that was also highlighted by attack on the US Embassy in the neighbourhood of Rabbani’s residence a few days back. Anyhow, as Rabbani headed the Peace Council, assigned the task of wooing Taliban, the peace process is obviously the main casualty of his death. Though the process had not yet gained momentum but contacts were being made and understandably it would take much time for a new head of the Council to pick up the thread even if the new appointment doesn’t spark controversy like that of Rabbani. It is also understood that from now onwards, the Council would be extra cautious in establishing contacts with Taliban and relying upon them. It is apprehended that Pakistan would be the worst sufferer in the aftermath of the assassination because on the one hand its efforts to mend fences with the Northern Alliance would receive a severe setback and on the other hand Americans would once again indulge in blame game as they did after the attack on their embassy in Kabul. This is because shifting blames on Pakistan is much easier than accepting the reality that the resistance to foreign occupation of Afghanistan is gaining strength and popularity with the passage of time and there is no solution to Afghan crisis than to vacate the aggression and allow Afghans to decide their own fate.

Rabbani`s assassination

From the Newspaper

THE assassination of former Afghan president and leader of the High Peace Council, Burhanuddin Rabbani, appears to have dealt a severe blow to the prospects of peace in Afghanistan. While talk about peace talks on various tracks has grabbed the headlines in recent months, the reality is that next to nothing is known about the content and pace of the engagements with Taliban emissaries and go-betweens. In fact, some commentators familiar with the region have suggested that a `peace process` has been stillborn as all sides are still waiting to see what the emerging strategies of the other sides are. And yet others point to the somewhat encouraging noises that have come from the Taliban camp which seem to suggest that a negotiated settlement in Afghanistan is not off the table altogether. Could it be, then, that there are rifts in the Afghan Taliban camp itself?

What is clear is that the assassination of Mr Rabbani has left President Karzai`s strategy for engaging the Taliban in tatters. Mr Rabbani, while seeking to engage Pakistan and other groups inside Afghanistan, was always controversial in the eyes of the Taliban because of his links with the Northern Alliance. The Northern Alliance, of course, would seek to have a nominee leading the internal peace process who is close to their camp for fear of their interests being harmed in a peace process with the Taliban. But for all the controversy attached to him, Mr Rabbani also had stature in Afghanistan and it isn`t clear if there is anyone else on the horizon who can replace him. In any case, with Taliban attacks and assassinations surging this year, can they be counted on to do anything other than press for victory?
For the Pakistani security establishment, the temptation may be to press home the `advantage` they have retained in the form of links to some Afghan Taliban groups, particularly the Haqqani network, now that it appears the Taliban`s always-unproven appetite for a political settlement has waned even further. But that is almost certain to lead to a deterioration of ties with the US in the short term, though it remains unclear if the US has the necessary tools to compel Pakistan to change course in its Afghan policy. For now, it appears the violence in Afghanistan will continue to creep upwards, accusations and recriminations between Pakistan, the US and the Afghan government will continue to flow and fear and apprehension in the region will continue to grow. Afghanistan does not have to descend into chaos; but are the stakeholders willing to do what it will take to prevent that from being the outcome?

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