Chargers D will INT Alex Smith early, Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews will plow through 49ers ... any questions? »

By Pat Leonard

Antonio Gates owners can officially consider Thursday Night Football their fantasy team’s worst enemy. On a short week, Philip Rivers’ favorite red zone target is listed as doubtful and “will almost certainly” not play, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Kevin Acee.

The Chargers tight end was inactive for San Diego’s 31-0 win over Kansas City in Week 14. He has missed three of the past five games. Now a torn plantar fascia in Gates’ right foot will almost certainly keep him out at least until Dec. 26, when the Chargers play the Bengals.

San Diego wins when coach Norv Turner relies on Mike Tolbert (above) and the Chargers offensive line to lead the offense. That recipe should work again on the 49ers Thursday night. Photo by AP

This injury appears severe enough that, even if Gates decides 30 minutes before kickoff he wants to play and gives Norv Turner the old “I can do it, Coach!” ... I’m still sitting him on my fantasy bench.

In Gates’ absence, of course, the Chargers still have a significant amount of fantasy-relevant talent on the offensive side of the ball. And in Week 14, we found out it’s certainly not all about Rivers and his receivers anymore.

San Diego rushed 43 times for 207 yards (4.8 ypc) and two touchdowns against a Chiefs team that has given up just 4.3 ypc and 109.9 yards per game on the season. The Chargers threw only 24 passes.

In fact, want to hear a good case for why tailbacks Mike Tolbert and Ryan Mathews are my favorite fantasy players in the Chargers-49ers matchup?

Check out the Chargers’ offensive stats from the last four games, and the final score:

Week 11: 38 rushes, 24 passes - SD 35, DEN 14
Week 12: 34 rushes, 23 passes - SD 36, IND 14
Week 13: 8 rushes, 39 passes - OAK 28, SD 13
Week 14: 43 rushes, 24 passes - SD 31, KC 0

Being in a 14-0 hole against Oakland did force San Diego to throw more, but what about when the Chargers trailed Denver 7-0 early? What about when they trailed Indianapolis 7-0 early?

No, San Diego is beating teams soundly right now with lockdown defense (No. 1 overall, No. 1 pass, No. 4 rush) and a punishing running game. Rivers is doing as much as he needs to do, but in those three wins, he trusted his offensive line to do the work.

So even though Tolbert and Mathews split carries down the middle at 16 apiece against KC, I like both of them as solid flex starts against San Fran. One of them will score better than flex numbers, and it will more likely be Tolbert, the bigger back for the goal line.

If you’re still not convinced the Chargers will pound the ball, check out this Wednesday report from the San Jose Mercury-News that 49ers inside linebackers Patrick Willis and Takeo Spikes “might have broken right hands.”

Both LBs were wearing “bulky” casts at Tuesday’s practice.

All the Chargers need is one early interception of Alex Smith - which is likely - to set up an early touchdown, take an early lead and start grinding out their eighth win on the ground. Plus Gates’ absence also may mean a few more targets for the backs from Rivers.

San Francisco quarterback Alex Smith (l.) is in for a rude awakening against the NFL's No. 1 defense, but he still may find tight end Vernon Davis in the end zone. Photo by AP

Of course, you have to start your man Philip Rivers at quarterback. But my friend Nate asked if he should start Rivers or Vick this week. Rivers will probably have 230 yards and a touchdown or two, but sitting Vick at this point is insanity - even if it’s against the Giants. Start Vick.

Start the San Diego defense. Turner was San Fran’s offensive coordinator in 2006 and knows Alex Smith’s tendencies well, not to mention how tough the Chargers are playing anyway.

Gates replacement at tight end, Randy McMichael, is a start in touchdown leagues.

And I’d also give a sleeper look for the flex position at wideout Legedu Naanee. I know Vincent Jackson is playing and Turner “has hope” Malcom Floyd will play, according to the San Diego Union-Tribune, but Naanee should see a good amount of looks after being out six of the last eight games with a hamstring injury.

Niners cornerback Nate Clements will reportedly line up in the slot for the majority of the game, partially so he can help out in run support. While we don’t know which Chargers receiver will spend the most time in the slot, it could be Floyd who sees the most of Clements, while Naanee is given room to roam.

As for the 49ers, the only San Francisco player I’m comfortable starting is tight end Vernon Davis. He’s a must-start if you have him. Otherwise, expect a Chargers beatdown of the Niners - and get that mute button ready for Matt Millen and Joe Theismann.

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